Improving Bar Passage

March 13th, 2016 / By Deborah J. Merritt

Scott Johns, Professor of Practice and Director of the Bar Success Program at the University of Denver Sturm College of Law, has posted a thoughtful empirical analysis of the college’s bar preparation program. Johns analyzed 642 students who graduated from the college in 2008–2010 and then immediately sat for the Colorado bar exam. He knew the exam score for each graduate, rather than simply pass-fail status, which allowed for a particularly nuanced analysis. Using multiple linear regression, Johns found the following associations with bar exam score:

• Law school GPA showed the strongest association. An increase of one point in GPA was associated, on average, with an increase of 46.5 points in bar exam score.
• LSAT score was the next strongest predictor. A one-point increase on the LSAT correlated with a 1.1 point increase in bar exam score.
• Participation in two of the college’s bar success programs each correlated with higher bar exam scores. A third program did not show a significant correlation.
• Neither sex nor minority status correlated significantly with bar exam scores.
• Age correlated negatively with bar exam scores; on average, older students achieved lower scores.
• Participation in the college’s part-time program likewise correlated significantly with lower bar exam scores.

All of these associations occurred while controlling for the other variables listed above. Participation in one of the successful bar preparation programs, for example, was significantly correlated with a higher bar exam score after controlling for LSAT, law school grades, sex, minority status, and other factors listed above.

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