* Updated to reflect sources
Professor Paula Young, of the Appalachian School of Law, predicts that the number of full-time jobs for law graduates will exceed the number of graduates by 2016. Excluding nonprofessional jobs from the tally, she calculates that sufficient full-time jobs will be available for JD grads by 2017. Are the calculations correct?
Unfortunately, no. The errors are somewhat understandable, because the ABA tables are hard to follow. The mistake is evident, however, because Professor Young reports the Class of 2012–rather than the Class of 2013–as the largest law school graduating class.
In this post I update Professor Young’s calculations, using the appropriate ABA data. I also, as Professor Young does, compare those forecasts with the number of jobs that were available for the Class of 2012. I then take her analysis one step further by making more realistic assumptions about the jobs that future graduates are likely to seek.
How Many JD Graduates?
The ABA reports annually both first-year enrollments in accredited JD programs and the degrees awarded by those programs. The table, as noted above, is awkward to read: Each line reports the first-year enrollment for that academic year, together with the degrees awarded during the prior academic year. This is a silly way to report data, but that’s what we have.
Using the ABA data, here are the first-year enrollment and graduation figures for the Classes of 2010 through 2012. Like Professor Young, I assume that all students graduate in three years–an assumption that does little to distort overall trends:
Class of 2010: 49,082 students entered; 44,258 graduated.
Class of 2011: 49,414 students entered; 44,495 graduated.
Class of 2012: 51,646 students entered; 46,478 graduated.
Note that the graduation rate for each of those classes was 90%, a little higher than the 88% that Professor Young estimates. I found the same rate for the classes of 2008 and 2009 (as far back as I checked), so I use a 90% rate when predicting future degree totals.
The ABA has already reported the number of students who entered law school for the graduating Classes of 2013 through 2015, but we don’t yet know the number who did (or will) receive degrees. Using the 90% graduation rate from recent classes, here are the predicted numbers of graduates:
Class of 2013: 52,488 students entered; predict 47,239 graduates.
Class of 2014: 48,697 students entered; predict 43,827 graduates.
Class of 2015: 44,481 students entered; predict 40,033 graduates.
Now let’s peer further into the future. Assuming, as Professor Young does, that entering classes will decrease steadily by 8% a year, while graduation rates will remain steady, I project the following numbers of JD graduates:
Class of 2016: 40,923 students entered; 36,264 will graduate.
Class of 2017: 37,649 students will enter; 33,884 will graduate.
Class of 2018: 34,637 students will enter; 31,173 will graduate.
Class of 2019: 31,866 students will enter; 28,679 will graduate.
Class of 2020: 29,317 students will enter; 26,385 will graduate.
Class of 2021: 26,972 students will enter; 24,275 will graduate.
My projected figures are about 9.4% higher than those calculated by Professor Young; the difference stems primarily from the fact that she attributed the all-time high enrollment of 52,488 students (who entered in the fall of 2010) to the Class of 2012 rather than the Class of 2013. If current trends in law school applications and admissions continue, the number of JDs will fall–but not quite as quickly as Professor Young predicts. Our current 1Ls will generate about 36,264 JDs in 2016, not the 33,145 that Professor Young calculatedd.
How will the number of graduates compare to the number of available jobs? Let’s take a look, using Professor Young’s assumption that future jobs will parallel the ones available to the Class of 2012.
Full-Time Jobs in 2012
NALP reports that members of the Class of 2012 held 33,759 full-time jobs nine months after graduation. That’s not enough jobs to employ the projected Class of 2016, which will include about 36,264 JDs. About 7% of that class–our current first-years–will lack full-time employment nine months after graduation.
Equally important, NALP’s full-time total masks several weaknesses in the job market. As Professor Young acknowledges, the total includes 330 nonprofessional jobs (such as retail sales) and 53 jobs of unknown character. If we exclude those jobs, the Class of 2012 secured 33,376 full-time jobs. That number won’t be enough to satisfy projected graduates in either 2016 or 2017.
But there’s more. Even the ABA omits “other professional” jobs from its summary of law school outcomes. Those jobs include elementary and secondary teachers, debt collectors, performing artists, and self-employed writers–all jobs that may satisfy the worker, but don’t draw upon a law degree or (in most cases) help repay the debt from that degree.
If we eliminate “other professional” jobs from consideration, the number of full-time jobs for the Class of 2012 falls to 31,606. For our current 1Ls, that means about 4,658 graduates (12.8% of the class) will lack full-time law-related employment nine months after graduation. For the Class of 2017, 2,278 graduates (6.7%) will fail to find full-time jobs related to their law degree. The jobs won’t match projected graduates until February of 2019, when the Class of 2018 reports its results.
Yet even that calculation is overly optimistic. “Full-time” jobs include short-term positions, those that will last for less than a year. Professionals don’t survive on temporary work; they aim to move on to full-time positions. When they do, however, they compete with students from the next graduating class. To match graduates to jobs, we need to look at full-time jobs that will last a year or more. The Class of 2012 found only 30,453 full-time, long-term jobs that drew upon their law degrees (either by requiring bar admission or offering a JD advantage).
That number of jobs won’t satisfy even a very slimmed-down Class of 2018. Even if law school enrollment continues to drop 8% per year, a daunting prospect for law school budgets, we won’t be able to celebrate a match between graduates and jobs until the spring of 2020, when the Class of 2019 registers its employment results.
Will JD Advantage Still Count?
All of the above calculations assume that future JDs will be satisfied with JD Advantage jobs. That seems like a dubious assumption. We know that recent graduates have not been satisfied with those jobs. Among 2011 graduates, 46.8% of those with JD Advantage jobs reported that they were seeking other work. (This figure comes from NALP surveys, although NALP does not publish the “seeking other work” figures online. For further discussion, see this post.) Graduates have been taking JD Advantage jobs to survive, but they are not satisfied with those positions.
In the future, this is even more likely to be true. As the cost of law school has mounted and the job market has tightened, pre-law advisers, the media, and even legal educators have advised students: “Go to law school only if you know you want to be a lawyer or have another well formulated plan for using a law degree.” That advice makes sense in the current climate–and it means that future graduates are even more likely than current ones to expect full-time, long-term positions that require bar admission.
The Class of 2012 found only 26,066 of those jobs. Assuming that law school enrollment continues to drop 8% a year, while jobs remain steady, when will all law school graduates be able to find full-time, long-term jobs that require bar admission?
2021.
I have proposed dividing legal education into an undergraduate major (which would include the 1L year plus one semester of electives) complemented by a two-year JD (which would focus on advanced doctrinal courses and clinical work). One practical question about this proposal is: What happens to students who pursue a non-law major in college but later decide that they want to practice law? There are several answers to this important question.
Complex Professions Require Extended Education
First, we should be realistic about the education that professional work requires. Professionals in other complex fields begin their preparation as early as middle school. Future doctors and engineers, for example, push ahead in the secondary math/science curriculum. In college, they take courses required for their major (engineering) or admission to medical school. No one doubts that these fields require extensive education acquired over numerous years.
The same is true of most academic fields outside of law. Respected graduate programs in history, philosophy, and other fields do not admit applicants who lack undergraduate preparation in those subjects. Programs sometimes admit students who majored in a different field, but those applicants must demonstrate other coursework that prepared them for graduate work in the subject. In addition to field-specific coursework, many graduate programs in the humanities require language proficiency; those in the social sciences may require languages, quantitative skills, or relevant research experience. A college senior who majored in classics can’t suddenly decide to pursue a PhD in psychology; nor can the psychology major abruptly switch to doctoral work in classics.
Law is one of the few post-baccalaureate programs that admits students without specifying any prerequisites other than a BA. This in itself should suggest that our initial coursework is designed for undergraduate majors rather than college graduates. The first year and a half of law school is introductory legal education that could–and should–be completed in college.
At the same time, our degree structure leaves too little time to prepare graduates for the complex work that genuinely requires a law license. Document review is not complex; a college graduate with a law major could perform that work. Prosecuting crimes, representing criminal defendants, arranging international real estate deals, or helping healthcare clients restructure operations to comply with the latest healthcare regulations is complex. Entry-level lawyers need more preparation–primarily in people, business, and clinical skills–to begin work in these fields.
Creating a law major recognizes that law is a complex field–just like medicine, engineering, philosophy, history, psychology, and other professions.
Career Changers
But what about the engineer who wants to become a lawyer? Or the historian who fails to find a tenure-track position and hopes to pursue law as a fallback? Or the well meaning student who did well in college but couldn’t quite decide on a path? How would any of those graduates find their way into the legal profession if they failed to major in law as college students?
There are many potential roads for these students, just as routes exist for college graduates who lack necessary preparation for medicine, engineering, and other fields. Some career-changers enroll as post-graduate or continuing education students to complete undergraduate coursework needed for their new path. Some universities have created special programs for these students. Johns Hopkins, for example, offers a “post-baccalaureate premedical” program that allows college graduates to take the coursework they need for medical school.
Graduates who want to pursue a PhD unrelated to their college major, similarly, may complete a Master’s degree in the field before gaining admission to a doctoral program. Others may gain conditional admission to the doctoral program, promising to complete necessary undergraduate courses during their first year in the program. These students don’t receive credit toward the PhD for those preparatory courses, but they are able to enroll in the courses and complete them.
Law schools could adopt options like these to accommodate college graduates who decide to pursue a legal degree without completing the necessary college courses. Those graduates probably could complete the 45 credits of an undergraduate major in a post-BA program encompassing a full calendar year. Alternatively, they could complete the work in a part-time program stretching over two or more years. Law schools undoubtedly could devise a variety of programs to accommodate these students, just as we have created special LLM programs for increasingly diverse audiences. I wager that the new programs would be more popular than many of the current LLM programs for nonlawyers; the proposed programs would give students a solid grounding in law and qualify them to move on to the JD.
With the degree structure I propose, even a career changer could qualify for a law license after just 3-1/2 academic years: 1-1/2 years to replace the pre-law major and 2 years for the JD. If the student paid undergraduate tuition for the first part of that education, she might pay less than she would today for a 3-year JD.
The College Minor
Where there are majors, there are minors. A college minor in law would also answer some concerns about late bloomers and career changers. Students with a possible interest in law might complete 15-20 credits of college work to qualify for a law minor. Those courses would cover roughly the first semester of law school. In addition to offering excellent insights to students pursuing a variety of careers, this coursework would give late-deciders a boost if they later chose to pursue a JD. These students would need to make up only 25-30 credits of pre-JD legal study before beginning the 2-year JD. In other words, they would devote 3 post-baccalaureate years to obtaining a JD, just as students do today.
The Other Side of the Coin
Dividing legal education into a college major and a 2-year professional degree need not deter career changers from entering law. Equally important, the shift would give many more students an opportunity to explore legal education and decide whether that path is right for them.
Plenty of college students change their majors or convert an intended major into a minor. Some students who begin a law major in college will decide that they prefer philosophy, accounting, chemistry, or other fields. More power to them! It is better for these students to recognize their talents and preferences in college, rather than after investing in an expensive professional degree.
Conversely, college students with little knowledge of law practice may learn about law from their roommates and other friends. If law intrigues these students, they will have a low-cost opportunity to explore the field. Some will decide that law is not for them; others will decide to apply a law BA to a business or compliance career; still others will pursue a JD and practice law.
Summer work and internships during college will help these students decide whether law is the right career for them. Today’s colleges offer many opportunities for this work. A college student who has combined legal coursework with an internship or summer job will have a better basis than today’s students do for deciding whether to pursue graduate legal study.
The BA in law, finally, creates an option that students may exercise at any time. Some law majors may proceed directly to law school. Others may opt for jobs unrelated to law. Still others will pursue positions in compliance, human relations, legal process work, and other law-related fields that do not require a law license. After experience in those fields, some graduates may continue that work, seeking opportunities for advancement within their chosen area. Others may decide to obtain a JD, becoming licensed lawyers. Still others may pursue a graduate degree in another field such as business, computer science, or health policy. Those graduates may determine that their foundational coursework in law, combined with graduate study in another field, gives them the best career prospects.
More Choices
The bottom line is that a law major, combined with a more focused JD program, will give students more choices rather than fewer ones. Creating those choices is consistent with our new economy, which requires flexibility and adaptation.
[We are pleased to present a guest post by Ruth Colker, Distinguished University Professor and Heck-Faust Chair in Constitutional Law, Moritz College of Law, The Ohio State University. This discussion is cross-posted from Professor Colker’s blog.]
What can a law school admissions officer learn from a close reading of Fisher v. University of Texas? A bit. (more…)
What does the Supreme Court’s enigmatic Fisher opinion mean for the daily operation of an admissions office? In particular, what does it herald for law school admissions? At first glance, Fisher seems to extend the status quo for affirmative action. The Court did not strike down the University of Texas’s race-conscious plan. Nor did it overturn the 2003 Grutter decision approving Michigan Law School’s approach to affirmative action during the 1990’s. A school that follows a procedure like the one Michigan successfully defended in Grutter, therefore, must be on safe ground–right? I’m not so sure.
Fisher Basics
On the surface, Fisher‘s holding is easy to digest. The Court held that:
(1) Courts must apply strict scrutiny to explicit consideration of race in university admissions.
(2) An “interest in the educational benefits that flow from a diverse student body” counts as a compelling interest. Indeed, the Court has recognized no other interest that counts in this context.
(3) Courts will defer to a university’s decision that it needs the educational benefits of diversity. A court must “ensure that there is a reasoned, principled explanation for the academic decision,” so academic institutions would be wise to build a record supporting their need for educational diversity. The courts, however, will not second-guess this conclusion if it is articulated and supported properly.
(4) Courts, on the other hand, must closely examine a university’s claim that its race-conscious program is narrowly tailored to achieve educational diversity. The university bears the burden of persuasion on this point, and courts will “examine with care” the university’s assertion.
What does an academic institution have to show to meet the narrowly-tailored prong of strict scrutiny? This is the key issue raised by Fisher. This is also the area in which the opinion includes more nuance than a first reading might suggest.
Narrowly Tailored
The Fisher majority pointed to two different showings that a university might have to make under the narrowly-tailored prong. The first is that the race-conscious process was “necessary” to achieve the university’s goal of attaining a diverse student body. If “workable race-neutral alternatives would produce the educational benefits of diversity,” then the university must embrace those methods instead of race-conscious ones.
This part of the ruling addresses a point that the Fisher plaintiffs stressed: Since the University of Texas had already achieved significant racial diversity through a legislatively imposed “top ten percent” plan, did the university really need additional race-conscious measures?
The Court didn’t answer this question, leaving it to the lower courts on remand. Texas, however, offered pretty persuasive justifications for its “add on” plan in the brief it submitted to the Court. The University pointed out that the ten-percent plan overlooks minority students who attend schools with no class rank; some of the state’s top private schools fall in that category. The ten-percent plan also omits minorities who perform well (but not within the top decile) at magnet schools and other challenging high schools. The University wasn’t aiming simply to enroll a given number of minority students; it wanted diverse students from a variety of backgrounds. The ten-percent plan couldn’t deliver that nuanced diversity.
I think Texas may prevail on this point in the lower courts–and even win affirmance from the Supreme Court if the case returns to that docket. But this portion of the narrowly-tailored discussion is irrelevant to law schools. We don’t have a “top ten percent” alternative, and there are no “workable race neutral” mechanisms that seem likely to create the racially diverse student bodies that law schools seek–and that seem more educationally valuable with every passing year.
Law schools may be able to show that race-conscious admissions policies are necessary to produce racially diverse classes. It’s the second, less noticed part of Fisher‘s “narrowly tailored” discussion that law schools should worry about.
Evaluating Applicants as Individuals
Justice Kennedy, writing for the Court in Fisher, stressed that a race-conscious admissions plan is narrowly tailored only if the “admissions processes ‘ensure that each applicant is evaluated as an individual and not in a way that makes an applicant’s race or ethnicity the defining feature of his or her application.'” This language stems from Grutter‘s majority opinion, and ultimately from Justice Powell’s opinion in Bakke, so law schools may assume that they’re on safe turf as long as they’re following processes upheld in the past–like the one Michigan successfully defended in Grutter.
The picture, unfortunately, is more complicated. Remember that Justice Kennedy dissented from Grutter, complaining that Michigan wasn’t really evaluating applicants as individuals. The school did review files holistically, without assigning a specific numerical plus to minority status. This “individualized” assessment, however, yielded a percentage of enrolled minority students that Justice Kennedy found suspiciously constant from year to year. The school’s admissions director also acknowledged that his office generated daily reports that tracked the racial composition of the evolving class. Especially during the final stage of the admissions season, this composition could affect the students chosen for admission.
Justice Kennedy concluded that this process preserved “individual evaluation” only during the early stages of admission. At later stages in the process, “an applicant’s race or ethnicity” might well become “the defining feature of his or her application.” The five Justices in the Grutter majority were willing to grant Michigan this leeway. As Justice O’Connor wrote for the Court, “‘some attention to numbers,’ without more, does not transform a flexible admissions system into a rigid quota.” (quoting Justice Powell’s opinion in Bakke). She also perceived more variation in the racial composition of Michigan’s entering classes than Justice Kennedy did.
But Justice O’Connor is no longer on the Court; Justice Kennedy is the necessary fifth vote to support any form of race-conscious admissions in higher education. And Justice Kennedy is very serious about the need for individualized evaluation throughout the admissions process. That’s what he said in Grutter and that’s what he affirmed in Fisher, this time for the Court.
Sticking to Individual Evaluation
Fisher is bad news for any school that tracks racial composition while admitting a class. As Justice Kennedy wrote in Grutter, it is hard for a school to claim that race plays a small, contextual, highly individualized role in assessing applicants when a school tracks that characteristic carefully during the final stages of admission. But don’t all schools do this if they care about matriculating a critical mass of minority students?
Apparently not. In fact, this is the ultimate irony of Fisher. UT has structured its admissions program to avoid any consideration (or even knowledge of) race during the final stages of its admissions process. Race is one factor that may affect an applicant’s “Personal Achievement Index (PAI),” but race plays a small role in generating that score. More important, once a file-reader generates the PAI score for an applicant, later decision-makers don’t know the basis for that score. Each applicant’s PAI represents a combination of work experience, extracurricular activities, community service, socioeconomic condition, minority race, and several other factors. The University extends admissions offers to applicants with PAI’s and Academic Indexes above chosen levels. When choosing those levels, however, the admissions officers do not know the races of the students they are including.
This system seems tailor-made to satisfy Justice Kennedy’s strict requirement of individual evaluation. Race truly is just one factor that the school considers in the context of an applicant’s full record. Once race has contributed to the PAI, it disappears from the decision-making process. The system furthers the school’s compelling interest in matriculating a racially diverse class, because it counts an applicant’s contribution to that end among other contributions. The system, however, does not allow race to become “the definining feature” of an applicant’s file.
Law schools that use a system like this may comply with Fisher‘s exacting standard. Schools that track race, as Michigan did before Grutter, may not fare as well.
But Isn’t Grutter Still Good Law?
It may seem odd to suggest that a school following the admissions process upheld in Grutter runs a risk today. The Fisher Court, after all, reaffirmed Grutter‘s principles and noted several times that the parties had not asked it to reexamine Grutter. Certainly a lower court might uphold a Grutter-like plan with that rationale. “Since the Court upheld this type of plan in Grutter,” a lower court judge might reason, “and the Court hasn’t overruled Grutter, then this plan must be constitutional.”
Justice Kennedy’s majority opinion in Fisher, however, offers support for a different conclusion. The opinion focuses on the need for lower courts to conduct searching scrutiny on the question of whether a race-conscious plan is, in fact, narrowly tailored. The Court specifically rebuked the Fifth Circuit and district court judge for being too deferential to the university. Lower court judges don’t like to be reversed that way; they’ll be reading Fisher closely for what the Court really wants.
On that score, there are two key sentences in Fisher. The first appears on page 12 of the majority’s slip opinion, where the Court declares: “Strict scrutiny does not permit a court to accept a school’s assertion that its admissions process uses race in a permissible way without a court giving close analysis to the evidence of how the process works in practice.” (emphasis added) Those italicized words are the essential ones; they hark straight back to Justice Kennedy’s dissent in Grutter. Lower courts cannot just accept a university’s description of multiple factors and holistic review; the courts must examine what the university actually does throughout its admissions process. If the university does things like track racial composition of the evolving class, Fisher raises a red flag.
The second sentence appears on the same page, in the preceding paragraph. There, Justice Kennedy notes that the Grutter Court “approved the plan at issue upon concluding that it was not a quota [and] was sufficiently flexible.” The paragraph continues, however, to observe that “the parties do not challenge, and the Court therefore does not consider, the correctness of that determination.” This reservation differs from the Court’s earlier observation that it would not reexamine the legal principles in Grutter. Here, the Court notes that it has not been asked to reconsider the factual correctness of Grutter–a sure sign that the majority harbors some doubts about that result. And, of course, we know that at least five Justices would disagree with that result.
What’s a Law School To Do?
All of this is problematic for law schools, because we try to shape our classes so closely. I haven’t served on a law school’s admissions committee for twenty years, so I may be out of date. My impression as a faculty member, however, is that law schools track LSAT scores, GPAs, race, and perhaps some other indicators (such as gender or in-state status) quite closely throughout the admissions process. Schools are trying to meet certain targets for those criteria. The targets may be soft ones, rather than strict quotas, but they may not satisfy the “individual evaluation” that Justice Kennedy fervently demands.
I’m a long-time advocate of affirmative action in university admissions. I authored an amicus brief in Grutter and wrote most recently about the issues here. So I’m not trying to read Fisher in a way that would restrict the flexibility of educational institutions. Instead, I’m concerned that schools may assume that Fisher‘s “compromise” decision holds little of note. I think that would be a mistake. I would assess any race-conscious program through the prism outlined above.
This is also a good time for law schools, bar associations, and courts to invest in more pipeline programs. Race-conscious admission policies have helped diversify law school classes, but they operate at the margins. Pipeline programs reach students much earlier in their educational lives, giving them both the tools and inspiration to prepare themselves for a professional career. Students who participate in pipeline programs, furthermore, carry their ambitions back to their schools and neighborhoods, where they may inspire other students.
It’s important, finally, for law schools to continue exploring new ways of measuring and valuing diversity. Michigan Law School’s current application asks students to provide race and ethnicity for reporting purposes, but declares that the information “will have no bearing on the Law School’s admission decision.”
Instead, the school seems to gauge diversity through an open-ended personal statement and a series of optional essays. Applicants may address any issue in the required personal statement, including “significant life experiences; meaningful intellectual interests and extracurricular activities; . . . significant obstacles met and overcome; . . . issues of sexual or gender identity; . . . socioeconomic challenges; . . . or experiences and perspectives relating to disadvantage, disability, or discrimination.” These topics allow applicants of any race to paint a holistic picture of themselves, including ways in which they might contribute to diversity of the student body.
Similarly, one of Michigan’s optional essays invites applicants to “describe an experience that speaks to the problems and possibilities of diversity in an educational or work setting,” while another optional prompt asks: “How might your perspectives and experiences enrich the quality and breadth of the intellectual life of our community or enhance the legal profession?” These portions of the application, I assume, enable Michigan to assemble a diverse class (on many dimensions) without allowing race to become a “defining feature” of an application.
Skeptics might claim that schools using essays like these are “really” looking just for racial identity. That, though, underestimates both the goals of admissions committees and the complexity of race. Race has never been a simple, binary concept, but its complexities have compounded. Increased immigration, a growing number of citizens who identify as multiracial, majority-minority urban centers, and a host of other factors mean that today’s minority Americans experience race in hundreds of different ways. Schools that want to enroll racially diverse classes, as well as white students who perceive the pervasive impacts of race–need to probe racial experience more deeply than just asking students to tick off a box. Pushing ourselves to think beyond those boxes, ironically, may help us preserve the racial diversity that the boxes initially helped us achieve.
This piece was originally published by the ABA Journal.
Change is coming to a law school near you. Economics will drive the change, but the exact configuration will depend on choices made by law schools, state supreme courts, the ABA, and Congress over the next few years.
Without intervention, market forces are likely to segment law schools. Are schools and the profession content with that outcome? The question warrants serious debate.
Law schools have entered crisis mode as word spreads about their costs and job outcomes. In recent years, tens of thousands of graduates have struggled to enter the legal marketplace and find professional jobs with salaries that permit them to service student loan debt. As a result of a steep drop in applications and enrollment, schools face a budgetary crisis—one certain to change the face of legal education. We can bend the future, but only if reform happens through the lens of fixing law school economics.
The drivers of this change are on course to stratify legal education for lawyers into two layers.
One group of law schools—perhaps a few dozen “elite” schools—will continue using the traditional model. Research faculties will teach high-achieving students from around the country and world. Graduates from these schools will continue to obtain the most competitive jobs after achieving traditional market signals like high GPA and law review membership.
These schools will be cheaper by today’s standards, yet expensive by any reasonable measure. Classes will follow a curriculum designed using core lawyering competencies and will involve more simulations and more writing.
Overall, elite schools won’t look much different than today’s law school—a professional and graduate school hybrid that tries to simultaneously serve both the legal profession and the pursuit of knowledge. Nevertheless, they will feel different because the educational product will be more skills-oriented.
The second group of law schools—perhaps a few hundred “local” schools, including new ones—will use a model centered on teaching faculty. These schools will have similar educational approaches to the elite schools, but look much different. The faculty will be hired for their experience as lawyers, judges, regulators and policy wonks. Scholarship may not be part of the job description, but will endure because the desire to analyze the world around you is human nature. The schools may teach undergraduates, paralegals, and other professionals in addition to lawyers. Ultimately, local leaders and lawyers will shape an education that is less graduate studies and more professional development.
Affordability will be a feature, but local schools will be defined by the ownership the local legal community takes in educating future members. The result will be a faculty that fluidly moves between practicing and teaching.
A transient faculty will provide opportunities, but also a set of challenges for these schools, particularly how to ensure a high-quality, consistent product that’s capable of teaching each student what they need to succeed. To overcome some challenges, schools will share faculty—sometimes across town, sometimes across time zones—and course materials because it’s more efficient than trying to hire for every need and having part-time teachers reinvent the wheel each term.
Although it’s the broken economics of law school accelerating reform discussions, demands for change concern just about every aspect of law school and come from diverse perspectives. Many stakeholders view the crisis as an opportunity to shape the future. Not everything needs to or will change, but widespread dissatisfaction has put everything on the table.
There are three main drivers of change, each tied to the future I’m predicting:
First, the cost of becoming a lawyer is too high. Tuition skyrocketed because law schools operated in a completely dysfunctional market. Law students (and therefore law schools) had unfettered access to student loans with little downward pressure on the borrowing. Attitudes about student debt were unsophisticated and schools enjoyed an information asymmetry about post-graduation employment outcomes. While the loan system still provides blank checks, applicants now have credible employment information and are becoming increasingly price-sensitive.
As the applicant market becomes more functional, at-risk schools will cut their budgets to meet demand. Surviving schools will be those that accept the need to reinvent rather than rely on minor changes. Budgets are largely personnel-driven, so most schools will need to figure out how to more leanly deliver education. This will all but necessitate involvement from the local bench and bar.
This brings us to the second driver: the bench and bar. Practicing lawyers and judges are fed up with the quality of education. The steady drumbeat for more practical skills training isn’t new—in fact it’s a century old. But the opportunity for reshaping law schools is new because of the information about and coverage of their broken economics. The trouble: Creating a law school experience that the profession wants requires a redefinition of the law school mission. It must become more professional school than graduate school.
The opportunity stems partly from the third driver: the legal profession’s structural transformation. The media began paying attention to law graduate struggles when it became apparent that even graduates of the country’s most elite schools struggled in “the new normal.” This accelerated the decline in the JD’s perceived value and invited a multitude of skeptical voices to shout their discontent.
Yet the structural change has been more gradual. Over many decades, practice has grown more complex and specialized. Technology, globalization and the unbundling of legal services have accelerated the change. The legal profession of the future looks different; so too will the education system that produces its members.
Upholding the broad and often elusive principles of the American legal system—such as equality, opportunity, and justice—requires a legal education system that’s not merely subservient to market forces. Successfully addressing the drivers of change without flattening essential principles depends on whether the solutions explored and adopted provide more than lip service to the broken economics of the modern law school.
If we lose sight of what’s causing the change, we may lose the opportunity to bend the course for the better.
Nowadays, law students borrow from the Department of Education Direct Loan Program for school. These loans are income-generating assets for the government. As such, I thought it would be interesting to see how large of an investment the federal government presently makes in law schools.
Based on my calculations, the total annual federal investment in law schools through student loans is currently $4.88 billion (2012-13 school year). Last year (2011-12), that number was $4.95 billion.
Calculating the annual investment required a sequence of estimates along with hard data. First, I used school-supplied data to calculate the government’s investment in 2012 graduates of ABA-approved schools. Second, I incorporated ABA-supplied enrollment data to estimate the government’s investment in all students enrolled during 2011-12. Finally, I used enrollment figures and tuition estimates to extend that projection to 2012-13, the academic year that just closed.
Students, of course, use their loans to cover living costs as well as law school tuition and fees. Law students, however, are forbidden from working during their first year, and find limited opportunities for paid work during the second and third years. Law schools can recruit students only as long as the students have a way to pay for both tuition and living expenses. It’s appropriate, therefore, to speak of educational loans to law students as an investment in law schools, not just students.
Hard Data on 192 ABA-Approved Schools: $4.33 Billion. Students who graduated law school in 2012 borrowed at least $4.33 billion in federally-guaranteed and federal direct student loans to finance their legal education: that’s the amount of federal loan dollars processed and disbursed by 192 law schools to their 2012 graduates who borrowed for law school.
To calculate the amount loaned for each school (available in the table here), I took the number of graduates and multiplied it times the percentage of those graduates borrowing loans processed by the school. I rounded that number to the nearest whole graduate and multiplied it times the average amount borrowed for that school. The known federal government investment figures do not include students who never graduated and those enrolled in non-JD programs.
Here is a table that aggregates federal investment by school type:
Type | Schools Accounted For | Avg. Debt/Student(% of all grads borrowing) | Total Federal Investment |
---|---|---|---|
Private (Non-Profit) | 110/113 (97.3%) | $125,963 (84.2%) | $3,064,183,905 |
Public School | 77/81 (95.1%) | $89,078 (83.8%) | $1,110,978,434 |
Private (For Profit) |
5/5 (100%) | $138,149 (91.7%) | $150,167,940 |
All Types | 192/199 (96.5%) | $114,170 (84.3%) | $4,325,330,279 |
The following schools did not report sufficient borrowing data to U.S. News: Barry University (Private, 200 grads), Florida A&M University (Public, 160 grads), Indiana University – Indianapolis (Public, 295 grads), Inter American University (Private, 234 grads), Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico (Private, 217 grads), University of Puerto Rico (Public, 202 grads), University of The District of Columbia (Public, 93 grads).
Estimated Investment in 2012 Graduates of Seven Other ABA-Approved Law Schools: $107 million. The seven ABA-approved schools (immediately above) had 1,401 graduates in 2012, but did not provide sufficient data about student borrowing. Three were non-profit private schools (with 651 grads); four were public schools (with 750 grads).
To estimate total federal investment in these graduates I used the average amount borrowed and average percentage borrowing by school type. The result is 548 graduates of the private schools borrowing an average of $125,963 and 629 graduates of the public schools borrowing an average of $89,078, or $125.2 million total. Because the three schools in Puerto Rico are on average much cheaper than their U.S. counterparts, I also discounted the amount borrowed 25% for the public Puerto Rican school and 30% for the private ones. This reduced the total for these seven schools to about $107 million.
Adding that total to the $4.33 billion discussed above yields a grand total of $4.43 billion that the Department of Education invested in students who earned JD’s at ABA-accredited law schools in 2012.
Estimating the federal government’s annual investment in all enrolled students, rather than just graduates, required some arithmetic gymnastics. Here are the calculations for 2011-12, the most recent year for which we have information about borrowing:
The 46,360 graduates in 2012 (with 84.3% borrowing) borrowed $4.43 billion, but that borrowing was over a period of three years during which tuition and cost of living rose steadily. In other words, the $4.43 billion estimate is for students who were first years in 2009-10, second years in 2010-11, and third years in 2011-12. (These numbers account for part-time and joint-degree students by assuming that, overall, their enrollment was steady from year to year.)
I next determined how much the 2012 graduates borrowed just for 2011-12. From the time those graduates entered law school, tuition rose on average about 7% each year. Under that assumption, 2012 graduates borrowed 31.2% of the amount borrowed for the first year, 33.4% for the second year, and 35.4% for the third year. So, 35.4% of the average amount borrowed for 2012 graduates came during 2011-12. Multiply 35.4% times total federal investment in 2012 graduates of ABA-approved schools ($4.433 billion) and the result is $1.569 billion for 2012 graduates during their last year—or an average of $40,146 for each of the students who borrowed.
Assuming that 1Ls and 2Ls followed the same borrowing patterns as the students who graduated, we could estimate the federal government’s annual investment in JD students simply by multiplying $1.569 billion (the amount loaned to 2012 graduates) by three. That yields a total of $4.71 billion. That initial estimate is low, however, because it doesn’t account for attrition. The graduating class is smaller than 1L and 2L classes.
To get a more accurate estimate of the federal investment in all JD students enrolled during 2011-12, I took the ABA-reported total JD enrollment for 2011-12 (146,288) and deducted the number of graduates (46,360). That left 99,928 students who attended JD programs in 2011-12 but did not graduate that year. If those students borrowed in the same percentages as graduating students did, then 84,239 (84.3%) of them took federal loans. Multiplying that amount times the average amount borrowed ($40,146) yields $3.382 billion. The total amount invested in all JD students enrolled during the 2011-12 school year, therefore, was about $4.95 billion.
Note the assumption that the average price paid did not vary by class year. Note, too, that my calculation does not include students at schools not approved by the ABA but nevertheless eligible for Title IV student loans. Nor, finally, did I include students eligible for federal funds who enrolled in LLM or other non-JD programs administered by law schools.
The estimate for 2012-13 faced several additional hurdles. The 2011-12 estimate must be adjusted for tuition rises (which increase the average amount borrowed), changes in total enrollment (which declined substantially), and the percentage of all students borrowing (which I assumed was steady at 84.3%).
In 2010, 2011, and 2012 law schools enrolled new classes of 52,488 students, 48,697 students, and 44,518 students. Based on prior graduation, enrollment data, and past attrition data, I estimated that 47,000 students graduated in 2013. We know that 44,518 were in their first year so, with total enrollment at 139,362 students, about 47,844 students were in their second year.
I next estimated how much these students borrowed in 2012-13. The 2012 graduate had borrowed an average of $40,146 for the last year of law school. If we assume that this amount rose due to tuition increases by an extremely modest 5% for the 94,844 upper-level students (with 84.3% borrowing), the federal investment was $3.37 billion for those students. However, the first-year students (in the aggregate, at least) did not feel the brunt of the tuition increases. Tuition discounts, financed through the upper-level students, were needed to sway prospective students. I assumed that students who began school in fall 2012 borrowed no more for their first year than the 2012 graduates borrowed for their last year. Using that assumption, I estimated that the federal investment in the 44,518 first-year students (with 84.3% borrowing) was $1.507 billion.
That brings total federal loans for JD students to an estimated $4.88 billion for 2012-13. That’s a substantial investment, but note that it’s $70 million less than the federal investment in 2011-12. JD tuition revenue declined significantly during the last academic year.
In 2011 and 2012, law schools enrolled new classes of 48,697 students and 44,481 students. For the coming fall, the most common projection is just 38,000. Based on prior graduation, enrollment data, and past attrition data, I estimate that 43,800 students will graduate in 2014. Using the projection of 38,000 first-year students, I estimate total enrollment at 125,300 students, which would be the lowest since 2000.
What will those students pay for law school, and how much will they borrow? Schools are competing to maintain first-year enrollments, so I predict that incoming students will borrow no more than the ones who just finished their first year (an average of $40,146). If 84.3% of the class continues to borrow from the federal government, then these incoming 1Ls will borrow a total of $1.29 billion. If we assume that the 87,300 upper-level students borrow 5% more than they did in the current year, and continue borrowing in the same proportions, those students will borrow about $3.18 billion. The estimated total federal investment in JD students during 2013-14 is $4.47 billion. That’s a lot of cash, but it’s $410 million less than the estimate for 2012-13.
Note that this estimate doesn’t include any changes in borrowing for living expenses–other than the reduction in the number of students. If inflation increases the cost of living, or if students have more difficulty finding paid part-time employment, total borrowing may be somewhat higher than this estimate. On the other hand, if students reduce living costs, borrowing may be even lower than my projection. The biggest story, here, however, is the reduction in number of enrolled students combined with modulation of tuition.
Putting all of the numbers together, I estimate that the federal government invested $4.95 billion in JD students enrolled in ABA-approved law schools during 2011-12; that it invested $4.88 billion in those students during 2012-13; and that it will invest $4.47 billion in 2013-14.
The calculations grow hazier as we move from hard data to estimates, but they are good ballpark figures for the amounts that law students borrowed from the federal government during the past two years, as well as for the amounts they are likely to borrow during the coming year. Two conclusions immediately stick out to me.
First, the federal investment in legal education is a lot. Compared to the $112 billion in federal investment in all of higher education in FY2012, law schools are disproportionately funded. As the conversation heats up about law school economics and student loans, and whether the federal government thinks such an investment is justified or fair, the estimates provide an idea about the magnitude of the federal government investment.
Second, law schools have a lot less money to spend and it is only going to get worse this coming year. My estimates for 2012-13 and 2013-14 suggest that fewer students are enrolling and that they are paying less tuition. The largest law school class ever enrolled just graduated and it will be replaced by the smallest class in 40 or so years. To enroll the upcoming class, schools will also likely offer larger discounts than ever before—a number that has been growing very quickly. My projections suggest that law students will borrow $480 million less during 2013-14 than in 2011-12 from the federal government. That’s a loss of almost a half billion dollars caused by lower enrollment and heavily discounted tuition. Information can do wonders, even in a dysfunctional market.
Schools may make up for some lost revenue through non-JD programs, which continue to expand unregulated and quickly. Others will have to cut costs. Most law schools will survive, but they have difficult decisions ahead.
Harvard Law School has announced a new, extra early decision program. The school will consider Harvard College juniors for admission, delivering decisions during the summer after junior year. The students, however, will not matriculate immediately after college graduation. Instead, this program defers admission for two years after college, requiring students to work or pursue a fellowship during that time. Depending on the results of the pilot program, Harvard may extend it to juniors at other colleges. The Boston Globe, Harvard Crimson, and Above the Law all have stories about the new program.
From a student’s point of view, the program seems very appealing. Successful students will lock in a seat at Harvard Law, with freedom to develop other workplace connections and skills before they enroll. Their two years in the workplace may focus their legal studies and make them even more attractive to employers. I’ve noticed anecdotally that law graduates with scientific, business, foreign language, or other pre-law experience seem to fare better in the job market than K-JD graduates with similar law school records. The Harvard program capitalizes on that trend.
From the school’s perspective, the program is also promising. Harvard Law has a chance to choose the most talented Harvard undergraduates, then send them into the world for useful experience. Once Harvard has said “yes,” those graduates may be less likely to apply to other law schools.
What are the downsides of the program? The Harvard program requires LSAT scores, pushing test preparation and test taking back a year. That may discourage some applicants or require a shuffling of other academic priorities. The program may also prevent admittees from negotiating with other law schools for a better financial deal–although Harvard’s need-based aid and generous low-income protection plan diminish those concerns.
On the innovation spectrum, Harvard’s admissions program is a small change. It doesn’t alter the cost of law school, the curriculum, or the forces reshaping the legal job market. The program is worth noting, however, for three reasons. First, shifts in the legal market have pushed even high-ranking Harvard Law School to respond. That should send a signal to other schools that are still hoping for a return to the old market. Second, I wonder whether other schools will follow Harvard’s lead. Does this program have legs? Finally, if the approach does spread, is this a program that will move us toward greater integration of the workplace and academy? Is it one of several steps toward a future in which future lawyers will move more fluidly between work and study? Or is this just a move in the competitive admissions market?
Finnegan, one of the world’s largest IP firms, is willing to invest in future lawyers. The firm is paying 100% of law school tuition for staff members who want to earn a law degree. The staff members work as part-time “student associates” while in law school; the firm bills their time at lower rates.
A visit to Finnegan’s site reveals that the firm currently employs thirty-eight of these student associates. I didn’t check every bio, but most of the future lawyers have science degrees and currently work on patent applications. They are enrolled in every D.C. law school (where Finnegan is headquartered), as well as at a range of schools in other cities that host Finnegan offices. Those include Boston, Atlanta, and San Francisco.
Finnegan’s program has two important implications for law schools. First, of course, it’s welcome news that talented professionals are enrolling in law school; it’s even more striking that an employer is paying for their legal education. Finnegan’s investment lends support to the idea that legal training could have special value for professionals employed in related fields–especially if they are able to keep working while in law school.
I’ve suggested before that law schools should implement more flexible degree programs, ones that support concurrent professional employment. The Finnegan policy seems to support that idea. Even if other employers aren’t willing to pay for their employees’ law school tuition, they might be willing to adapt that employee’s work schedule to accommodate law school classes. Professionals in law-related fields may be a modestly growing source of students for law schools.
Second, however, Finnegan’s approach may place further pressure on the traditional college-to-law-school-to-firm route of entering corporate law practice. Finnegan has 38 of its talented scientists, who have already worked with the firm’s lawyers and clients, enrolled in law school. With that type of talent in the pipeline, will the firm continue hiring as many conventional associates?
Equally important, what if corporate clients adopt Finnegan’s way for themselves? Companies could send senior compliance managers, financial analysts, and others to law school, hoping that a cadre of law-trained managers will reduce their need for outside counsel. These managers would provide a new pool of promising law students, but might further reduce hiring at the companies’ outside law firms.
It’s hard to predict the math on this, but I would take Finnegan’s program as a useful signal for law schools. To keep up with the twenty-first century market, law schools may need to focus more heavily on educating professionals who work in related fields and who continue that work throughout law school. If we value those students and accommodate them, we might tap a new pool of applicants. And, if legal work continues to shift from law firms to corporations, we would at least keep up with that movement.
The Kaplan Test Prep company has published the results of an online survey of pre-law students who have taken a Kaplan LSAT course. The results of this survey are more anecdotal than scientific; 228 students responded to the survey but Kaplan does not indicate how many were invited to participate. It is impossible, therefore, to determine how representative these respondents are–even of students who take Kaplan LSAT prep courses.
With that important caveat, the survey results contain more bad news for law schools. Forty-three percent of the respondents declared that they planned to use their JD in the “business world,” and forty-two percent indicated that “they’d likely pursue an MBA if they weren’t already pursuing a JD.” Some observers might interpret those responses to mean that pre-law students are grasping the versatility of the JD and actively planning to use their legal training in non-traditional fields. Unfortunately, though, the responses connote a much gloomier prospect.
Those responses suggest remarkably weak interest in legal careers, even among people who have plunked down money for an LSAT prep course. If these pre-law students are already thinking about business school, how likely are they to persevere through applications, admissions, and financial aid counseling–ultimately enrolling in law school?
Responses to another survey question underscore this low attachment to legal careers. Forty-three percent of the Kaplan respondents said they were likely to alter or postpone their law school plans if they did not get a favorable financial aid package. Again, these are pre-law students with the money and commitment to take an LSAT prep course; despite that commitment, they are remarkably noncommittal about law school.
The Kaplan survey is yet another indicator that the downturn in law school applications will last for at least several more years. Next fall’s college freshmen have had all of high school to absorb information about the high cost of law school and the uncertain job prospects. Would-be lawyers may have already turned to computer science, engineering, nursing, business, and other subjects; they may not even explore law as an option. If the college juniors and seniors who responded to the Kaplan survey are already this skeptical about law school, then how much enthusiasm will their younger siblings bring to campus?
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